De nieuwste verwachting gaat uit van een cat 4 bij landfall

Bericht van: Eric, Rotterdam , 06-10-2024 23:54 

In Florida. Mogelijk is hij tijdelijk zelfs cat 5

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/062053.shtml

 

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid 
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within 
light shear and over very deep warm waters.  Intensity guidance is 
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with 
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in 
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two.  The NHC forecast is 
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus 
model and still could be too low.  Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and 
some weakening is anticipated.  However, the regional hurricane 
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are 
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very 
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing 
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards 
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the 
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this 
system and listen to local officials.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 22.4N  93.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 22.2N  92.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 22.2N  90.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 22.6N  89.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 23.6N  86.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 25.2N  85.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 27.0N  83.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 29.8N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 31.4N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

 

 

Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 06-10-2024 23:55

Bij hurricane Milton is de snelle intensivering begonnen.   ( 1098)
Eric, Rotterdam -- 06-10-2024 21:13
De nieuwste verwachting gaat uit van een cat 4 bij landfall   ( 220)
Eric, Rotterdam -- 06-10-2024 23:54