Dat is het moeilijke er aan denk wat is de echte invloed. Het stukje komt uit het stuk waarin er een onderzoek was zonder rekening te houden met de zwaveluitstoot.
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Given the sensitivity of the climate to stratospheric water vapor, it is logical to assume that Hunga's water vapor injection might have a significant climate impact.
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Jenkins et al. (2023) used a parameterized climate-response model to investigate the climate impact of the Hunga water vapor plume. They neglected the impact of aerosols and only considered the radiative forcing due to the water vapor injection and computed a 0.12 W/m2 increase in tropospheric radiative forcing.
However, Sellitto et al. (2022) and Zhu et al. (2022) roughly estimated that the aerosol plume would produce a peak February solar forcing reduction of ∼1.7 and 2.1 W/m2, exceeding the estimated forcing increase due to H2O. Schoeberl, Wang, Ueyama, Dessler, et al., 2023 hereafter S23b) provided a more accurate estimate of the aerosol and water vapor forcing confirming that the aerosol forcing overwhelms the water vapor flux increase during the first year following the eruption.
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