Ik heb de indruk dat de buiensituatie voor morgen aan het afkalven is wat betreft dauwpunten, windschering en forcering. Maar we moeten het ermee doen. Volgens Estofex kunnen kleine storingen langs de frontale zone nog wat invloed hebben op de convectie. De guidance noemt een frontale (occlusie)golf die zaterdagmiddag over NL trekt. Hieronder de verwachting van Estofex (synopsis + tekst voor Benelux).
SYNOPSIS
An unseasonably intense mid-level low remains moored in the Norwegian Sea. Its circulation influences large parts of Europe. The axis of a 25-35 m/s mid-level jet runs from the Bay of Biscay to France, central Europe, Poland, Belarus and NW Russia. It is largely collocated with a broad and diffuse, more or less stationary frontal zone. In response to vorticity maxima aloft, several small wave- or comma-like disturbances run eastward on the cyclonic side of the frontal zone from England to the Baltic States. Their timing and intensity, and hence their interaction on convective developments, are limited but difficult to assess.
South of the frontal zone, very warm to hot and anticyclonic conditions dominate across Iberia, the Mediterranean Region and the Balkans. A weak upper-level low is placed over Greece and W Turkey.
DISCUSSION
... England, France, BeNeLux, Germany, W Czech Republic, W and N Poland, Baltic States ...
The maritime polar airmass on the cool side of the frontal boundary features a neutral to marginally unstable stratification under intense vertical wind shear (more than 25 m/s across the 0-6 km layer, 10-15 m/s across the lowest km). Scattered and partly thundery showers are expected in response to daytime heating. Though they will not be able to consume the entire vertical wind shear, an organization into low-topped multicells, supercells and short bowing lines is expected. Isolated severe wind gusts and tornadoes are possible. Two regions in parts of Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic, where synoptic lift ahead of vorticity maxima should enhance the number of showers, are covered by a level 1.
