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WTNT42 KNHC 281204
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF
KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS.
OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT
LANDFALL. WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.
NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
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