We gaan het meemaken. Kijk niet raar op dat het sneller gaat met aansterken. Gebeurt laatste jaren best vaak.
Het NHC houdt ook rekening met die mogelijkheid. 96H en 120H forecasts zijn hoger geworden. Allemaal nog erg onzeker, net als de koers.
Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification through that time. At long range, some relaxation of this shear is anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the most conducive environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the model consensus due to continuity constraints. While there is still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane model forecasts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH