Winter forecast Dec-Feb 2005/6
This forecast is produced using a combination of statistical models, such as those used to predict the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and complex climate models with additional interpretation by operational forecasters.
Forecast updated 24 Oct 2005
Our predictions continue to indicate a colder than average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK — especially southern regions — are expected to have temperatures below normal.
There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter over much of the UK.
The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.
Confidence in long-range predictions is relatively low compared to our normal short-period forecasts. Typically the broad features of the forecast for the European region are correct two out of every three occasions. Using a traffic light analogy we consider that people should remain on amber alert for the prospect of a colder-than-average winter.
There will be regional variations across the UK this coming winter. For example, historically, when southern and central England experience a harsh winter, it is quite common for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland to have a mild one.
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