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Event #48 - 26 October 2003
Issued: 16:30 UTC, 27 October 2003
SOURCE EVENT
Class X1.2/2N Flare in Region 484 at 18:19 UTC on 26 October 2003
Type II: 950 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~1550 km/sec (west)
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 19:00 UTC on 27 October to 15:00 UTC on 28 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 03:00 UTC, 28 October 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 6
Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD (and mixed)
EVENT #48 NOTES:
SOHO data received over the last few hours indicates that although much of the mass associated with this coronal mass ejection was directed westward, there was in fact a faint full halo signature visible in differenced imagery. The velocity of this disturbance is very high and has the potential to reach the Earth during the early part of 28 October.
Given the very close time of arrival estimates for Events 48 and 47 (see below), there is a concern that the two disturbances could combine and result in a stronger than originally anticipated disturbance. We believe there is a very real possibility for periods of severe geomagnetic storming associated with these two disturbances, particularly within the first 12 hours after the first disturbance arrives. The situation is too complex to model reliably.
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