Koude kerstvakantie met aan het eind wat sneeuw. Hm.... die durft he !
Bill Giles
Updated 13 October 2003.
Bill explains how he makes his long range forecasts or listen to him describe it here.
A cold Christmas week with chance of snow by the New Year especially in eastern England and eastern Scotland.
November 2003
November is a month of wide variations in the weather, not just day to day, but north to south as well. Northern parts of the highlands of Scotland can get their first real taste of winter. At the same time the southwest of England could still have balmy breezes wafting in from the south Atlantic.
High pressure generally brings fog and frost, and this is the month when some of the fog could last all day. Equally, under high pressure, cloud and pollution can get trapped making it very dull situation that we call anticyclonic gloom.
1-7 November
During the first day or so of November we are still likely to have high pressure in charge of the weather. It will probably be dry in most places with sunny spells, and fog and frost at night.
However, soon the winds will swing into the west or southwest bringing in weather fronts from the Atlantic. It is likely to become cloudy everywhere with periods of rain, which are likely to be heaviest in the west and north, and will sweep eastwards on the strong winds.
As the more persistent rain moves away eastwards it will be followed by sunny spells and blustery showers.
8-14 November
This week will still see low pressure firmly in control. It looks like another wet and windy week just about everywhere with some heavy rain in places and, perhaps, gales at times, more especially in the west and north. Temperatures will stay close to the normal for this time of the year.
15-27 November
It looks as though it will continue to be unsettled during this period with further rain and strong winds. As the winds turn more into the northwest they will bring colder brighter weather across the country. Some snow showers are likely over the hills as far south as the Welsh mountains.
28-30 November
There is a good chance that somewhat drier weather will have pushed in during the last few days of November as high pressure begins to build. This means sunnier weather by day but fog and frost at night. Some of the fog may not clear, keeping some areas very cold.
December
Looking ahead to December, at this stage, is always a frightening but exciting experience because so much hangs on the weather over the Christmas period. Most people would really like it to be cold, crisp and snowy. In reality, for most of the country, this seldom happens.
What does happen, or at least it always seems to, is that the weather changes around Christmas Eve, or thereabouts and this is what causes all the problems. The weather patterns can often play tricks with us right up until the festivities. This year, I fear, will be no exception.
1-7 December
High pressure will be in charge during the first week. Although a cold week with widespread frosts is likely, there will be some lovely sunny days. Overnight fog and frost may linger all day in some low lying river valleys. Most places will stay dry but, as the winds swing into the northwest, there could be some snow showers over Scotland.
8-14 December
Again, this looks like a cold week. Northwesterly winds are likely to bring showers to northern and western Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England, western Wales and, perhaps, southwest England. Over the mountains the showers could fall as snow, and there is a likelihood of some wet snow in the showers over lower ground in the north.
Eastern Scotland and all of central and eastern England, together with east Wales, will stay predominately dry with some sunshine, but there may still be a little fog and frost at night.
15-21 December
During this week the winds will become westerly and bring some milder, wetter weather in from the Atlantic. However, at this stage, I do not think there will be too much rain, especially in the east.
By the end of the week the pressure will rise again. As the high settles to the east of the country drier, brighter, but much colder southeasterly winds, could become established over the country, setting the scene for a cold Christmas, perhaps.
22-31 December
At this stage it looks as though the Christmas week could be cold and dry with some frost at night and some pleasant winter sunshine by day. However, there is a hint of some low pressure development towards the end of December.
With east to southeasterly winds, there could be some snow to herald in the New Year, especially in southeast England, East Anglia, northeast England and eastern Scotland.
I will let you know more about this next month when I update my thoughts on Monday 3rd November.
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