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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.
================================================================================
===
Summary valid for Sunday 22/01/06 to Saturday 28/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 19/01/06 2100 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence is high that mainly dry weather will become established over the UK
next week as pressure effectively builds from the east. Gradually turning colder
and possibly (30% chance) very cold for a time in the SE at the end of the week.
Confidence low to moderate for detail.
On Sunday and Monday Scotland and Northern and parts of northern England look
like staying mild with moderate to fresh SW winds bringing spells of rain and
drizzle. The rest of England and Wales mainly dry with lighter winds and
temperatures close to normal. Some sunny intervals but cloud amounts variable
with frost and fog patches at night.
On Tuesday northern areas should turn colder and gradually turn mainly dry from
the south. However, the northern Isles will have sleet and snow showers in a
brisk NW wind. Elsewhere in the north winds turning lighter. The rest of the UK
will be dry and rather cold with frost and fog at night and light winds. Fog
possible lingering well into the day in a few places and generally turning
rather dull with low cloud and drizzle in places. Temperatures just below normal
but very cold where any fog lingers.
Staying mostly dry and cold on Wednesday and Thursday, again with frost and fog
at night with mainly light winds. Some freezing fog persisting all day in
places. During Thursday a cold and brisk east wind could set in in southern
areas making it feel raw. Cloud amounts variable on these two days, but
generally a lot of cloud, particularly in the east.
On Friday and Saturday, the high pressure regime should persist with the
possibility of a fresh to strong east wind bringing snow flurries into England
and Wales. Obviously at this stage details on amounts etc are difficult to
predict but the signal is there for some wintry weather, particularly in
southern areas at the end of the week. Staying cold generally with daytime
maxima above freezing. However, there is a 30% risk of very cold air with
sub-zero daytime maxima getting into SE England for a while.
Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for the cold
theme to continue but probably turning less cold after the weekend 28th/29th.
Trend for high pressure and driest weather to be located to north of UK with
easterly winds bringing a mixture of rain, sleet and snow to eastern and
southern areas. Later in the week Atlantic frontal systems could well encroach
from the SW bringing widespread rain, sleet and hill snow into England and
Wales.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 21st/22nd January 2006.
Dry with sunny spells sums up the weekend. Frost at night in low-lying areas and
temperatures around normal with day maxes in the range 4-7 deg C depending on
altitude. No snow, with freezing levels above the summits. Light winds.
Excellent walking conditions on an unusually dry moor for the time of year.
Apologies for the dreadful forecast last Saturday, the front moved on east far
quicker than we anticipated. C'est la vie! Now 10 days since the last snow
melted on Dartmoor, this mild snow-less weather cannot last.
Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
(Last week's forecast below as usual).
================================================================================
Summary valid for Sunday 15/01/06 to Saturday 21/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 12/01/06 1800 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence on general evolution of this forecast is moderate at 60% but low for
timings.
During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday an upper trough will be disrupting close to
the UK bringing frontal systems very slowly eastwards. This means spells of rain
and a lot of cloud in all areas. Winds fresh to strong south to southwest but
turning lighter westerly as the rain clears eastwards on Tuesday. Temperatures
close to normal but cold enough for some sleet and snow on high ground in the
north, especially on Monday.
Later on Tuesday and on Wednesday a powerful west to northwest jet stream in the
Atlantic will drive frontal systems across the North Sea into the continent
introducing a spell of mild and changeable weather for the rest of the week in
the UK. So rain at times with fresh to strong SW winds. Possible turning colder
again towards next weekend as yet another upper trough disrupts bringing wet and
very windy weather to all parts.
Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for the unsettled
weather to continue with temperatures around normal. Rain in all areas with hill
snow in colder interludes and strong winds.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 15/16th January 2006.
I hope everyone enjoyed the snowy, wintry conditions on Dartmoor last weekend.
The snow line was 280m asl precisely as predicted, although there was more snow
on Sunday than expected (4cm above 500m asl on Ryders Hill in south moor) and
less than expected on Saturday. But all in all a nice weekend. Not so good this
coming weekend I'm afraid. Rain at times on both days with a freshening south to
southwest wind turning strong to gale on Sunday. Hill fog at times above 300m
asl. Only real chance of wintry precipitation is for a bit of sleet or wet snow
above 550m asl on Sunday with freezing levels above the summits. Maximum
temperatures generally 4-7 deg C above 250m asl depending on altitude.
Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
=============================================================================
Nervous cheers,
Will (Chief forecaster USW/HMO)
--
" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto: will@lyneside.demon.co.uk
www: www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
================================================================================
===
This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.
================================================================================
===
Summary valid for Sunday 22/01/06 to Saturday 28/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 19/01/06 2100 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence is high that mainly dry weather will become established over the UK
next week as pressure effectively builds from the east. Gradually turning colder
and possibly (30% chance) very cold for a time in the SE at the end of the week.
Confidence low to moderate for detail.
On Sunday and Monday Scotland and Northern and parts of northern England look
like staying mild with moderate to fresh SW winds bringing spells of rain and
drizzle. The rest of England and Wales mainly dry with lighter winds and
temperatures close to normal. Some sunny intervals but cloud amounts variable
with frost and fog patches at night.
On Tuesday northern areas should turn colder and gradually turn mainly dry from
the south. However, the northern Isles will have sleet and snow showers in a
brisk NW wind. Elsewhere in the north winds turning lighter. The rest of the UK
will be dry and rather cold with frost and fog at night and light winds. Fog
possible lingering well into the day in a few places and generally turning
rather dull with low cloud and drizzle in places. Temperatures just below normal
but very cold where any fog lingers.
Staying mostly dry and cold on Wednesday and Thursday, again with frost and fog
at night with mainly light winds. Some freezing fog persisting all day in
places. During Thursday a cold and brisk east wind could set in in southern
areas making it feel raw. Cloud amounts variable on these two days, but
generally a lot of cloud, particularly in the east.
On Friday and Saturday, the high pressure regime should persist with the
possibility of a fresh to strong east wind bringing snow flurries into England
and Wales. Obviously at this stage details on amounts etc are difficult to
predict but the signal is there for some wintry weather, particularly in
southern areas at the end of the week. Staying cold generally with daytime
maxima above freezing. However, there is a 30% risk of very cold air with
sub-zero daytime maxima getting into SE England for a while.
Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for the cold
theme to continue but probably turning less cold after the weekend 28th/29th.
Trend for high pressure and driest weather to be located to north of UK with
easterly winds bringing a mixture of rain, sleet and snow to eastern and
southern areas. Later in the week Atlantic frontal systems could well encroach
from the SW bringing widespread rain, sleet and hill snow into England and
Wales.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 21st/22nd January 2006.
Dry with sunny spells sums up the weekend. Frost at night in low-lying areas and
temperatures around normal with day maxes in the range 4-7 deg C depending on
altitude. No snow, with freezing levels above the summits. Light winds.
Excellent walking conditions on an unusually dry moor for the time of year.
Apologies for the dreadful forecast last Saturday, the front moved on east far
quicker than we anticipated. C'est la vie! Now 10 days since the last snow
melted on Dartmoor, this mild snow-less weather cannot last.
Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
(Last week's forecast below as usual).
================================================================================
Summary valid for Sunday 15/01/06 to Saturday 21/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 12/01/06 1800 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence on general evolution of this forecast is moderate at 60% but low for
timings.
During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday an upper trough will be disrupting close to
the UK bringing frontal systems very slowly eastwards. This means spells of rain
and a lot of cloud in all areas. Winds fresh to strong south to southwest but
turning lighter westerly as the rain clears eastwards on Tuesday. Temperatures
close to normal but cold enough for some sleet and snow on high ground in the
north, especially on Monday.
Later on Tuesday and on Wednesday a powerful west to northwest jet stream in the
Atlantic will drive frontal systems across the North Sea into the continent
introducing a spell of mild and changeable weather for the rest of the week in
the UK. So rain at times with fresh to strong SW winds. Possible turning colder
again towards next weekend as yet another upper trough disrupts bringing wet and
very windy weather to all parts.
Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for the unsettled
weather to continue with temperatures around normal. Rain in all areas with hill
snow in colder interludes and strong winds.
Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 15/16th January 2006.
I hope everyone enjoyed the snowy, wintry conditions on Dartmoor last weekend.
The snow line was 280m asl precisely as predicted, although there was more snow
on Sunday than expected (4cm above 500m asl on Ryders Hill in south moor) and
less than expected on Saturday. But all in all a nice weekend. Not so good this
coming weekend I'm afraid. Rain at times on both days with a freshening south to
southwest wind turning strong to gale on Sunday. Hill fog at times above 300m
asl. Only real chance of wintry precipitation is for a bit of sleet or wet snow
above 550m asl on Sunday with freezing levels above the summits. Maximum
temperatures generally 4-7 deg C above 250m asl depending on altitude.
Will Hand (Chief forecaster)
=============================================================================
Nervous cheers,
Will (Chief forecaster USW/HMO)
--
" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto: will@lyneside.demon.co.uk
www: www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------