... ik zou er in ieder geval voor willen tekenen.
Still a chance of some snow around the Christmas period.
I started the debate last month about the likely weather over the Christmas period and the New Year. I mentioned that I thought there could be some snow around the Christmas week, and I still stand by that statement. However, whether it occurs just before or just after Christmas Day is still uncertain.
The patterns thrown up by the computer models for the coming winter give a somewhat conflicting picture. At this stage I would say that there is about a 40% chance of a wet mild winter, but a 60% chance of the coming winter being one of the coldest and driest that we have had for a number of years.
My following predictions are based on the fact that I think the most likely scenario is for the cold weather to win, but I will keep you up to date on my thoughts about this over the coming weeks and months.
December
This can often be a very gloomy month with major temperature variations between coastal and inland areas of the country. I think it is likely that high pressure will dominate the scene this year, which means we are likely to get a lot of cold frosty weather with fog patches that could linger all day in some river valleys.
1 - 3 December
It looks like being a dry, cold start to the month with sunshine by day but frosty nights with some fog patches that could linger all day in places.
4 - 9 December
This could be a period when the high pressure breaks down for a while allowing rain bearing fronts to move in from the Atlantic. The wet and windy weather will push in from the west, with the heaviest rain over Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England.
The strong northwesterly winds will make it feel milder than the early part of the month.
10 - 25 December
After the wet and windy weather of the previous week, the anticyclone could well become established again and last right through to the Christmas period. The unsettled milder weather of the previous week will gradually give way to colder brighter conditions again.
Most places will then have long sunny spells during the day, after any early morning fog has cleared, but it will feel on the cold side with widespread night frosts.
26 - 29 December
During this period more unsettled weather is likely to try and push across the country but, after the recent cold spell, some of the rain will turn to snow. The timing of this change is still a little uncertain. I am not quite sure just yet as to whether it will occur just before or just after Christmas, so keep watching this space!
30 - 31 December
By the turn of the year the colder weather, with sunshine by day and fog and frost at night, will have returned to give a seasonal feel to New Year's Eve.
January 2004
This, to me is the depth of the winter with the short days and long dark nights. There can be wild variations in the weather across the country with some coastal areas staying quite mild, whilst not far inland there could be a severe frost.
1 - 12 January
This looks as though it could be a very cold period with the Scandinavian High pressure the dominant feature of the weather. So for most of the country there will be crisp winter sunshine, but also some widespread frosts and freezing fog patches at night.
13 - 17 January
High pressure is still likely to be in charge during this period, but with its centre out to the west of Ireland most of the country will have bitterly cold northerly winds, which may bring some snow showers to north facing coasts and hills. Inland, sheltered from the winds, there will be a severe and penetrating frost.
18 - 22 January
Low pressure could well drift into the United Kingdom bringing cloud and some sleet or snow to many areas, but it will not be anywhere near as cold as the previous week.
23 - 31 January
High pressure is likely to re-establish itself, so there will be a return to cold, frosty weather with southeasterly winds feeding off the near Continent. By the end of the month the winds could have swung into the south.
These will bring somewhat less cold weather but they will also hint to the fact that some rain in the Atlantic could swing in and turn to snow as it does, so we could be in for a change of weather with the change of month.
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