Hebben we geen GFS-model met droomkaarten voor handen dan heb ik hier een droomweerman gevonden. Lees maar eens wat hij te vertellen heeft. Ik persoonlijk ken de man van haar of pluimen maar in de Angelsaksische weerwereld is hij een beroemdheid.
Joe Bastardi's Europe Column
POSTED: 2:57 a.m. November 17, 2003
The thoughts expressed in this column represent Joe Bastardi's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating AccuWeather forecasts, the opinions of many other AccuWeather meteorologists are also considered.
This discussion is updated only the days that Joe is available, usually Monday-Friday. Check the date above and come back often!
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SUNDAY EVENING: HERE COMES 1ST HALF OF THE WINTER PATTERN.
Between the meridian and the dateline in the Western Hemisphere, four major systems are splitting away from the northern branch and starting the change to reuniting all the major upper features. When the smoke clears in 10-15 days, major longwave troughs will show up over western Europe, eastern North America, the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Asia. The Asian continent distorts the pattern so that the major vortex that has been over central Asia is replaced by a a ridge.
This means the start of a very stormy period of weather for Europe later this week and the following week as major troughs dig southeast around the developing upper ridge over Greenland and northeast North America. How much arctic air will get involved is still tough to say, but at the very least, a very unstable cold flow will develop, which would mean heavy interior high ground snow, perhaps even in Spain. It would seem that such an event will be a lock in elevations above 1,500 meters from Scandinavia to southern France and Germany. How far in the cold can spread will depend on whether we get a true arctic air mass, in which case even Paris and London could receive snow next week. One thing is for certain: it will be stormy.
The interesting thing about all this is that in general, the evolution to this has been something we have been alluding to, but the details are still a problem. For instance, the development of all these small upper lows that split off from the jet; in our area of the world it is the one that has cut southeast through Spain. These are details that then feed back into the generalities. Consider this: the upper system northeast of Hawaii that develops pumps the ridge over Mexico that sends the arctic trough into eastern North America next week. The upper feature that develops over the Atlantic pumps the ridge northeast of it that sends the strong trough southeast for Europe. It is a case of how the weather a half a world away is acting in crescendo to affect us.
My advice to most of Europe is to enjoy the next several days because in a week from now, things will be much different.
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