heeft een klein onderzoekje gedaan en heeft een toch een verbandje gevonden tussen een zachte november en de koude winter die erop volgt. Iets voor Alwin om eens te onderzoeken...
As we are now more than halfway through the month, I thought I'd do an impromptu update on this taking into account the exceptionally mild weather we are enjoying at the moment. The average CET so far this month is 9.1C, making it the mildest first half of November since 1994. I have assumed, for this set of CET probabilities, that the average CET for November will come in somewhere between 8 and 9C (not unrealistic looking at this morning's synoptic modelling). I will break down the three months of winter in the forecast update to be issued at the end of the month.
Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) average CET forecast:
Calculated by CET comparison (1659 to 2002) and synoptic pattern matching:
Exceptionally mild 0%
Very mild 0%
Mild 10%
Average 30%
Rather cold 20%
Very cold 20%
Severe 20%
Winter 2003/04 average CET forecast: 3.7C
(1971 - 2000 average: 4.5C)
De persoon in kwestie blijft er wel nuchter bij want even verder schrijft hij het volgende als antwoord op een enthousiasteling:
I wouldn't get excited if I were you. Historical pattern matching is good fun but that's pretty much what it remains ... a bit of fun. I'm now working on a forecast for the 2002/03 winter using the same methods and I'll post soon to show how good/rubbish such methods are
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