AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE TOP/OAX/EAX WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.
H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
INHIBITION IS ERODED. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/.
THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME.
NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.
H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
INHIBITION IS ERODED. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/.
THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME.
NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
