Deze week kwam ik tot ontdekking dat mijn model ineens weer bij het jaar 1920 opnieuw begonnen is. Het andere model was tot 1940 gevorderd en is schijnbaar verwijderd.
Net kwam ik tot de ontdekking dat die reset bij iedereen plaats heeft gevonden die deel neemt aan het expiriment.
Dus, geen paniek (denk ik, begrijp niet de hele tekst namelijk
)!
Net kwam ik tot de ontdekking dat die reset bij iedereen plaats heeft gevonden die deel neemt aan het expiriment.
Dus, geen paniek (denk ik, begrijp niet de hele tekst namelijk
)!
Your model has returned to 1920
Find out more about why the scientists have reset the models. You don't need to take any action.
18 APRIL 2006
If you are checking the date of your model regularly, you may notice it return to the year 1920. Many of you have also noticed that your models have been warming up faster than the real world did over the 20th century.
We'd like to apologise for having to restart all the models.
Your efforts so far have not been wasted, but it does mean that the experiment will take longer. We would like to encourage you to keep running the experiment, because your contribution is still just as useful.
The reason for the reset is that the scientists at Oxford have discovered that one of the input files to the model hasn't been increasing the amount of sulphate pollution in the atmosphere (sometimes called the "global dimming" effect) as it should have done. So what you are seeing is the full impact of greenhouse warming not masked as it was in the real world by sulphate pollution.
The experiment you have done is still a useful contribution to scientific research, as well as a graphic illustration of how much warmer the world might already be were it not for the global dimming effect. But to make the most accurate prediction for the 21st century, we obviously want to use the best possible inputs over the 20th century. So, after much discussion, the scientists have decided the best strategy is to re-run people's climate models with corrected sulphate data, rather than trying to "fix" the problem after the event. This will mean that models will return to the year 1920, and begin running again.
There is nothing that you need to do as a result of this. Your computer will automatically pull in all the data it needs. We'd also like to stress that the model itself and the software it is running on are working perfectly: the only correction is to an input data file that the project was supplied with. So this development does not add any risk to your computer.
However, it does mean that the experiment will take longer to run than we originally estimated. Please do carry on running your model if you possibly can - it's still just as important that we try and get the best possible prediction of what our climate will be like in the future.
As you would expect, that also means that we will be reporting the results later than the May date we originally planned.
You can find out more technical information about this issue here:
www.climateprediction.net/board/viewtopic.php?t=4759
We should also point out that the data that we have collected so far is still useful. It will add to our understanding of the role that sulphate pollutants have in global warming.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4520831.stm
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