Mocht er dadelijk echt een mooie lijn ontstaan dan ben ik voornemens richting Flevoland te rijden om de lijn daar dan in de polder op te wachten. GFS zat er voor NL qua timing en lokatie van de neerslag voor vandaag trouwens buitengewoon goed op!
Estofex komt met een voorwaardelijke threat level 1 voor oost NL en west DLD. Hieronder het betoog van Oscar van der Velde (het lijkt wel alsof ik nog samen met hem door de VS aan het chasen ben!
)
"...Eastern Netherlands, northwestern Germany...
The Sun 06Z GFS run indicated a band of significant deep layer shear (15-20 m/s) passing over this area. However, later runs have since decreased this. At the east side of the cold front the airmass is unstable up to several hundred J/kg MLCAPE and strong convective precipitation signals in the GFS model. Because of the lack of enhanced SREH and shear collocated with the instability, main convective mode will be clustered storms, probably grouped in a line along the front.
GFS Sun 06Z indicated already no capping at 12Z, while later runs have instead kept difference between LCL and LFC, which probably means that frontal cloudiness or precipitation prevents sufficient heating. Hence, the level 1 is a very conditional one mainly issued because of the anticipated widespread convection. Main chances of severe weather include marginally large hail and marginally severe downburst winds, on an isolated scale."
Estofex komt met een voorwaardelijke threat level 1 voor oost NL en west DLD. Hieronder het betoog van Oscar van der Velde (het lijkt wel alsof ik nog samen met hem door de VS aan het chasen ben!
)"...Eastern Netherlands, northwestern Germany...
The Sun 06Z GFS run indicated a band of significant deep layer shear (15-20 m/s) passing over this area. However, later runs have since decreased this. At the east side of the cold front the airmass is unstable up to several hundred J/kg MLCAPE and strong convective precipitation signals in the GFS model. Because of the lack of enhanced SREH and shear collocated with the instability, main convective mode will be clustered storms, probably grouped in a line along the front.
GFS Sun 06Z indicated already no capping at 12Z, while later runs have instead kept difference between LCL and LFC, which probably means that frontal cloudiness or precipitation prevents sufficient heating. Hence, the level 1 is a very conditional one mainly issued because of the anticipated widespread convection. Main chances of severe weather include marginally large hail and marginally severe downburst winds, on an isolated scale."
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 19-06-2006 09:45