AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED
MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS
DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG
SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM
WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A
POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES
NOT DECREASE.
bron: nhc
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