HELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19. THERE HAS OTHERWISE BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD TURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
PS de hoofdletters zijn origineel, niet door mij aangebracht (HL)
PS de hoofdletters zijn origineel, niet door mij aangebracht (HL)
