Monthly Summary
Turning chilly - but only for a short time.
It's been so mild recently. Temperatures have been rather high for the time of year, and even with a few frosty nights, the afternoon temperatures have still managed to creep right up into the high teens for many - reaching 21 Celsius in Bournemouth on Friday afternoon!
We're well into October now and average values for the time of year range from 10.8 Celsius in Scotland to 13.6 Celsius in England, and a UK average of 12.5 Celsius. So, with highs of 5 or 6 degrees above this, it really is exceptionally mild as recent temperatures have shown.
However, the mild spell may not last - a chilly period is likely to appear over the next week or so, but any cold interlude probably won't linger at this stage, in fact early signals based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) do indicate a milder, wetter winter this season, in contrast to the cold, dry winter of last year.
Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd October
"Still mild - turning colder, hill snow on the way"
There is a mild and settled start to the new week - with a little mist in places and most areas staying dry on Monday. Sunny spells are forecast in the southeast of England and also across northern Scotland and Northern Ireland. Otherwise, more cloudy spells and perhaps a few spots of rain is forecast for other areas. The exceptionally mild weather could continue, in the southeast for example, where temperatures may reach the low twenties again.
On Tuesday, it's another dry, sunny day in the southeast, but rain will spread into Northern Ireland, Scotland and the southwest, then across to eastern counties by the end of the day.
Wednesday is looking a touch cooler in the south and perhaps more so further north. Rain will clear away from Scotland in the morning, but more rain and strong winds will spread across Wales and southwest England.
As that low pressure crosses the UK, northerly winds begin to pull down colder air into northern and western areas. This means that for Thursday and Friday, it will start to feel quite cold, especially so on Friday as the low pulls into the North Sea and a northeasterly wind sets in. Showers with clear spells in-between could mean some icy roads on Friday morning in northern Britain.
The weekend remains chilly and with the northeasterly wind persisting, it will be very windy, even with gales for a time. There will still be showers, but also more sunshine in-between, so perhaps looking brighter.
However, with the mild temperatures falling so much lower, we could see some wintry flurries over the hills, mostly for Scotland but possibly for Snowdonia and the tops of the Pennines too.
Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th October
"Calm and Cold - frosty nights"
During this week, a weak low pressure to the northwest of the UK and a weak ridge of high pressure extending from the southwest means that the UK is rather stuck in the middle and not really influenced by either. Because of this, it's difficult to determine exactly what our own resulting weather pattern will be.
The most likely scenario is that the wind will be very light and there will be some rain at times, but most areas won't see too much more than average. The hangover from the northerly wind from last week will mean low temperatures as a starting point, but with little breeze affecting the UK, there won't really be much to warm things up, so it's looking like a rather chilly week.
Clear skies are forecast for a fair amount of the time, meaning a decent amount of sunshine across the week, although this will help to bring some warmth by day, the nights will become so chilly that the daytime temperatures will still struggle. Frosty mornings and the prospect of mist and fog to start the days are looking more likely.
Monday 30th to Sunday 12th November
"Turning mild again - breezy and changeable"
From the end of the month, the low pressure to the northwest and the high pressure to the south both intensify, the light southwesterly breeze will strengthen considerably to become rather brisk at times. With the wind coming from the Azores, the temperatures will shoot up again and so overnight frost and fog will fade away, and daytime temperatures should be back into the teens once again - in spite of average UK November temperatures being around 8 Celsius! But the amount of rain will also increase and so we'll be back into a pattern of bands of rain followed by sunshine and showers - perhaps a little less rain for the likes of Scotland and northeast England, where there is less influence from the brisk southwesterly wind.
Will the cold spell set in properly?
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