Hoi allemaal,
Minder interessant weer in de Lage Landen (behalve dan voor de statistieken) maar aan de andere kant van de wereld is het een stuk interessanter door toedoen van tropische storm Durian die momenteel de west- pacific teistert. Aan de naamgeving te zien is het de vierde orkaan in die regio dit seizoen.
Wil nu net lukken dat dat ding daar juist in de periode dat ik daar moet passeren (6 december) voor mijn reis naar Bali, tot ontwikkeling komt. Vooral mijn vlucht vanuit Hong Kong zou wel eens kunnen afgelast worden met alle gevolgen vandien. Leuk om eens van dichtbij te zien, zo'n storm maar als het vliegverkeer erdoor lam komt te liggen kun je er niet eens raken.
WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z NOV TO 031200Z DEC 2006.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 24W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH
A SERIES OF APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A STAIRSTEP
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
POLEWARD OF TY 24W, AND THE APPROACHING TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO PERTURB THIS FLOW ENOUGH TO CAPTURE TY 24W INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE PATTERN. HOWEVER, A GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR DO DEPICT RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OCCURING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AND THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO
CANNOT YET BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED.
C. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 280941Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST. AS THE STORM WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT EFFECT ON STORM MOTION,
DRIVING A TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.5N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z,
291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN
Minder interessant weer in de Lage Landen (behalve dan voor de statistieken) maar aan de andere kant van de wereld is het een stuk interessanter door toedoen van tropische storm Durian die momenteel de west- pacific teistert. Aan de naamgeving te zien is het de vierde orkaan in die regio dit seizoen.
Wil nu net lukken dat dat ding daar juist in de periode dat ik daar moet passeren (6 december) voor mijn reis naar Bali, tot ontwikkeling komt. Vooral mijn vlucht vanuit Hong Kong zou wel eens kunnen afgelast worden met alle gevolgen vandien. Leuk om eens van dichtbij te zien, zo'n storm maar als het vliegverkeer erdoor lam komt te liggen kun je er niet eens raken.
WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z NOV TO 031200Z DEC 2006.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 24W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH
A SERIES OF APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A STAIRSTEP
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
POLEWARD OF TY 24W, AND THE APPROACHING TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO PERTURB THIS FLOW ENOUGH TO CAPTURE TY 24W INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE PATTERN. HOWEVER, A GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR DO DEPICT RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OCCURING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AND THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO
CANNOT YET BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED.
C. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 280941Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST. AS THE STORM WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT EFFECT ON STORM MOTION,
DRIVING A TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.5N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z,
291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN
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