Een tweetal dagen terug heb ik wel een klein berichtje over Durian gepost, maar wegens tijdsgebrek kan ik de typhoon niet goed volgen, hoewel ik daar wel veel zin in heb.
Voor de liefhebbers nu toch een korte situatieschets.
huidige sterkte: cat 2 bij rukwinden tot 190 km/u. Voor de komende dagen verwacht JTWC een afzwakking van het systeem om op 5 december als tropische depressie aan land te gaan in Vietnam.
De voorspeller van dienst maakt ons niet veel wijzer. Wordt vervolgd,
Wouter de boskabouter
DPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z TO 050000Z DEC 2006.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. THE 30/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG NORTH OF TY 24W. THERE IS A WEAKNESS LOCATED NORTHWEST
OF LUZON, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD DUE TO
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE DISTANCE OF THE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEAKNESS. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH SOME INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
72 THEN SHARP TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD (NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, COAMPS).
THE MAJORITY OF THE AIDS (JTYM, JGSM, EGRR, GFDN, NOGAPS) SHOW A
WESTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST FAVORS THE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING (RIDGE DOMINATING AT STEERING
LEVEL).
C. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 24W HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS DUE TO LAND INTER-
ACTION. LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS ALSO INDICATE THAT
TY 24W HAS
ENCOUNTERED VERY DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND HAS
STARTED TO ENTRAIN THIS DRY AIR. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. WITH
THE WESTWARD TRACK, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIG-
NIFICANTLY AFFECT THE SYSTEM SINCE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. BEYOND TAU 72, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TY 24W AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. TY 24W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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