Probleem zal het ontbreken vande LASCO beelden zijn, ik denk dat je de schattingen niet te strict moet nemen. In het onderstaande bericht wordt verwacht dat de Bz de eerste 12 tot 18 uur na aankomst positief is. Met een aankomst van 7UT zou dat gunstig zijn voor ons, alhoewel de meeste materie dan al wel voorbij is.
Qua weer is het knudde in het noorden van de Benelux, Limburg heeft de meeste kans op opklaringen, ook in Belgie zou ik niet te ver naar het westen willen zitten.
Daniel
Event #79 - 13 December 2006
Issued: 05:55 UTC, 13 December 2006
SOURCE EVENT
X-Class Proton Flare from Region 930 on 13 December 2006
Type II: 1534 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: N/A
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 14 December to 21:00 UTC on 14 December
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2:00 am EST on 14 December)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 7-8
Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD
EVENT #79 NOTES:
A major class X3.4 solar flare with associated strong radio emissions including a Type II, Type IV sweeps and an intense 44,000 sfu tenflare were observed from Region 930 at 02:41 UTC on 13 December. A prompt Ground Level Event (GLE) was associated with this event as near relativistic protons impacted the Earth's magnetic field. Although there is no LASCO imagery at the time this prediction was released, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that a high velocity coronal mass ejection was associated with this event. The initial impact will likely be associated with a strong northward turning of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), which would help reduce the intensity of the geomagnetic and auroral storming that occurs immediately after the disturbance arrives. However, during the following 12 to 18 hours, the IMF is expected to rotate into a southward orientation and produce possibly strong to intense storm conditions. Geomagnetic K-indices of 6 to 9 are considered possible with this event. This is a significant event and has the potential to produce widespread manifestations of geomagnetic and auroral activity during the UTC day of 14 December (evening/early morning hours of 13/14 December over North America).
Qua weer is het knudde in het noorden van de Benelux, Limburg heeft de meeste kans op opklaringen, ook in Belgie zou ik niet te ver naar het westen willen zitten.
Daniel
Event #79 - 13 December 2006
Issued: 05:55 UTC, 13 December 2006
SOURCE EVENT
X-Class Proton Flare from Region 930 on 13 December 2006
Type II: 1534 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: N/A
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 14 December to 21:00 UTC on 14 December
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2:00 am EST on 14 December)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 7-8
Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD
EVENT #79 NOTES:
A major class X3.4 solar flare with associated strong radio emissions including a Type II, Type IV sweeps and an intense 44,000 sfu tenflare were observed from Region 930 at 02:41 UTC on 13 December. A prompt Ground Level Event (GLE) was associated with this event as near relativistic protons impacted the Earth's magnetic field. Although there is no LASCO imagery at the time this prediction was released, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that a high velocity coronal mass ejection was associated with this event. The initial impact will likely be associated with a strong northward turning of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), which would help reduce the intensity of the geomagnetic and auroral storming that occurs immediately after the disturbance arrives. However, during the following 12 to 18 hours, the IMF is expected to rotate into a southward orientation and produce possibly strong to intense storm conditions. Geomagnetic K-indices of 6 to 9 are considered possible with this event. This is a significant event and has the potential to produce widespread manifestations of geomagnetic and auroral activity during the UTC day of 14 December (evening/early morning hours of 13/14 December over North America).
Karma police arrest this man, he talks in math...
bij. Dat is gemakkelijker