Een cat 4, misschien 5 (!) is op weg naar Madagascar!
naast Madagascar ligt Mozambique, oftewel een van de armste landen van de wereld. Als dit ding die kant opgaat is de ramp niet te overzien!
WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 9.4S 50.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 50.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.7S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.6S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.6S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 50.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND NOW HAS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. EARLIER SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
EYE (AS LATE AS THE 211008Z AMSR-E IMAGE), HOWEVER, THIS
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIURNAL CYCLING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24
DUE TO THE OFF-SETTING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, REINTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, TC
05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS (SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR) IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND
221500Z.//
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met dank aanTakkie!
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