of Record-Breaking Temperatures.
Is dit al bekend? En wat is jullie mening erover? Ik ben me er doorheen aan het worstelen maar mijn statistiek-kennis is van ruwweg 12 jaar oud... het moet dus flink afgestoft worden.
De abstract:
"We theoretically study the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these
predictions using both Monte Carlo simulations and 126 years of available data from the city of
Philadelphia. Using extreme statistics, we derive the number and the magnitude of record temper-
ature events, based on the observed Gaussian daily temperature distribution in Philadelphia, as a
function of the number of years of observation. We then consider the case of global warming, where
the mean temperature systematically increases with time. Over the 126-year time range of observa-
tions, we argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency
of record temperature events, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and by the
Philadelphia data. We also study the role of correlations between temperatures on successive days
and find that they do not affect the frequency or magnitude of record temperature events."
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0509/0509088.pdf
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