Ik ben blij dat zij mijn korte analyse van gisterochtend bevestigen.
Groet,
Alwin
Northern France, Belgium, central parts of Germany, south-western Poland
Near the frontal boundary, warm air mass will likely destabilize due to colder mid-troposhere air mass and increasing QG forcing in the range of strong upper level jet streak. Latest model guidance shows some CAPE that develops from northern France to western Germany in the evening hours. During the night, tongue of warm/instable air mass shifts to the east across Germany. Current thinking is that stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms will occur along the frontal boundary during the day/night hours. In the range of the instable air mass, more isolated and probably elevated convection may be possible further south especially in the night hours as low-level warm air advection increases above the stable boundary-layer. Given strong vertical wind shear, severe thunderstorms are not ruled out with severe wind gusts the main threat. Isolated large hail may also occur. Isolated cells that root to the boundary-layer will pose a slight chance for tornadoes given strong low-level wind shear. All-over threat seems to warrant a level one at this time. Convection will spread into southern Poland in the morning hours.
Morgen maakt België kans op een paar (fikse) onweders. En dan vooral in de namiddag en avond in het midden en zuidoosten (Ardennen) van België en in Luxemburg en zuidelijker/oostelijker. De buien kunnen lokaal stevig uitpakken met zware windstoten en hagel, vooral ook vanwege die droge laag op middelbare niveaus. Je moet het woord tornado niet te vaak gebruiken (klinkt zo sensatiezuchtig), maar ook een tornado kan niet worden uitgesloten.
Hieronder een progtemp voor Luxemburg, morgenavond 20 uur. Je ziet heel veel windschering onderin, maar ook over een diepere laag.
Groet,
Alwin
Northern France, Belgium, central parts of Germany, south-western Poland
Near the frontal boundary, warm air mass will likely destabilize due to colder mid-troposhere air mass and increasing QG forcing in the range of strong upper level jet streak. Latest model guidance shows some CAPE that develops from northern France to western Germany in the evening hours. During the night, tongue of warm/instable air mass shifts to the east across Germany. Current thinking is that stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms will occur along the frontal boundary during the day/night hours. In the range of the instable air mass, more isolated and probably elevated convection may be possible further south especially in the night hours as low-level warm air advection increases above the stable boundary-layer. Given strong vertical wind shear, severe thunderstorms are not ruled out with severe wind gusts the main threat. Isolated large hail may also occur. Isolated cells that root to the boundary-layer will pose a slight chance for tornadoes given strong low-level wind shear. All-over threat seems to warrant a level one at this time. Convection will spread into southern Poland in the morning hours.
