january
A lot of mild, unsettled weather with rain. Colder and brighter in the east for a time after mid month
The unsettled weather that I promised last week has materialised which has given me some hope for this next month's prognostication.
I think that the unsettled weather will continue for a while, and that we will not see the pressure rising very much until around the 19th of January.
There is, then, a chance that the Scandinavian high pressure will start to dominate the scene, in which case it will be much colder than I am suggesting in this forecast.
Saturday 10 January to Friday 16 January
I think that low pressure will dominate the weather this week and that it will cross the country over the weekend allowing west to northwest winds to pull in behind it. There is a hint that pressure may start to rise to the east, in which case the low may stay to the west of Ireland allowing a southerly wind across the country.
Northern, central and southern Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, northwest England, the west Midlands, central southern and southwest England will have some showery rain over the weekend. The most frequent and heaviest showers are likely to be over Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England.
Around the middle of the week another wet and windy spell is likely. This unsettled weather will persist in these western parts of the country throughout the rest of the week.
Eastern Scotland, northeast England, the east Midlands, East Anglia and southeast England will also have some showery rain over the weekend and into the beginning of the working week. There is a hint that pressure might start to rise in these eastern areas in the second half of the week when it could then become drier and brighter but much colder.
Saturday 17 January to Friday 23 January
I am not terribly sure about the forecast for this week this far ahead. At the moment, I think that we could see low pressure out to the west and high pressure to the east giving southerly winds across most parts of the United Kingdom.
This could well bring a more settled period of weather for a time. However, over the weekend, heavy showery rain is likely over western parts of England and Wales, whereas the driest weather is again over eastern parts of England where there could be some night frosts.
As the low pressure transfers into Europe, there could be a spell of wetter weather over the southern half of England and Wales, possibly giving some sleet or snow.
Then, as the low drifts away and pressure recovers, there could well be a temporary spell of much colder weather, with some sunshine by day but severe frosts overnight.
By the end of the week, low pressure may move towards the west of Scotland bringing milder southwesterly winds and rain into many western parts of the country.
Saturday 24 January to Friday 30 January
High pressure will remain out to the east of the country this week, so that for much of northeast England, East Anglia, the east Midlands and southeast England it is likely to be a dry week with some pleasant wintry sunshine. It will, however, be cold with some night frosts and a biting east to southeast wind.
For Scotland, Northern Ireland and the western parts of England, together with Wales, it will be a milder week than further east with a good deal of cloud and some showery outbreaks of rain, but there will also be some longish dry spells as well.
Saturday 31 January to Wednesday 4 February
During this period the weather is likely to turn more unsettled again with an area of low pressure crossing the north of Scotland allowing its associated weather fronts to move eastwards over all parts of the United Kingdom.
So for all areas of the country it looks like being fairly mild, but changeable. There will be a good deal of cloud for much of the time, and bands of rain will push in from the west, followed by sunny spells and showers.
Over Scotland, Northern Ireland, and perhaps the higher ground in northern England, it will be very windy at times with the squally and gusty westerly wind occasionally reaching gale force.
We are still on line for some very cold weather during February.
February 2004
As we move into February we often believe that the winter is very nearly over. This may be true, but February can often be the coldest month of the winter, and this year is likely to bring a very cold snap from the middle of the month.
1-11 February
High pressure is expected to the south of the country, probably over central Europe, giving southwesterly winds across much of the United Kingdom. Low pressure to the north will allow rain bearing weather fronts to push in across Scotland and Northern Ireland and eventually edge southwards through England and Wales.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will stay mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, chiefly in the west and north and over the hills, with lighter, more patchy rainfall over southeast and southern Scotland and the more eastern parts of Northern Ireland. This wet, and often, windy weather will give way to sunny spells and showers as the weather fronts move away to the east.
England and Wales will start, for the most part, dry but with quite a lot of cloud. After the first week there will be an increasing risk of rain moving down from the north, followed by somewhat brighter weather but with some showers, these mainly in the west.
12-14 February
This could well be an awkward few days to forecast since I think that the high pressure will start to push back from the south. So most places will start cloudy with outbreaks of rain but it will become gradually brighter from the south, but then there will be an increasing risk of fog and frost at night.
15-20 February
This looks like the start of a cold snap of weather which will probably end up as the coldest period of the whole winter. High pressure will be just to the north of the country so for most places it will be cold with severe frosts and some freezing patches of fog.
By the end of this period I think the winds could well be coming in from the east, making it feel particularly raw over eastern England and eastern Scotland where there will be an increasing chance of some snow flurries.
21-23 February
It will still be very cold during these few days with a penetrating east to northeast winds. Severe frosts are likely but there will also be some weak sunshine. As the high pressure edges back across the country so the snow flurries in the east will slowly die out.
24-29 February
The high pressure will still be with us during the last week in February, so it is likely to be dry just about everywhere. As the high moves to the east or south, the winds will start to come in from the south or southeast. Although still on the cold side, it will not be as cold as the previous week, but there will still be some very sharp frosts, but also more in the way of daytime sunshine.
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