Bericht van: Marcus (Sleidinge)
- moderator -
, 11-01-2004 19:59
Bron: TWO-forum: The guys at UKSci are starting to get very concerned about this system. Earlier this evening Will wrote:
'Satellite imagery today was striking with transverse streaks evident in the developing low indicating rapid ascent in the very strong jet. Also structure looked complex so models will struggle with the detail in the data sparse area.
Nevertheless it looks like England and Wales will be battered by severe gale to storm force winds. One point to watch is the "sting jet" in the northwesterly behind the low, this could become ferocious as the low deepens, all areas are at risk but especially SE Britain and later Holland, here winds could touch 100mph in gusts causing catastrophic damage. Another point is that the high ground of
Wales could have blizzards on the northern edge of the low, something else to watch.
Finally I note the DT 1200 GFS looks "tame", I'm not happy with this run as the satellite imagery would suggest a much more developed feature.
Please take care everyone, this is potentially a very severe situation
developing.
Will.
And on the latest imagery, Paul B has added:
Indeed Will, Sat Imagery during the day has always looked much more "angry" than the relatively tame 12Z output. There were very few ship obs in the region at midday and this may have undely affected the models.
I notice that on a sequence of hourly WV images that a marked dry slot is now appearing in the region of the left exit, very near the "suggested" centre ... meaning more rapid cyclogenesis may be appearing.
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"Koersen, dat is stampen en afzien tot ge niet meer weet van welke parochie ge zijt." (Briek Schotte)