The Met Office is expecting one or two intense depressions to cross the Atlantic during the next few days. The main risk period, for the first storm, is Monday, with a second (possible) storm posing a lower but significant risk for Tuesday and early Wednesday.
The storm on Monday is likely to bring severe gales, with inland gusts of order 70mph across the south of the UK, and at the same time produce copious amounts of rain – totals of order 25-40mm – across southern and some central parts of the UK. These events would bring down trees, cause some structural damage, disrupt transport and lead to some localised flooding. Probability ratings for these events are as stated above. The storm is most likely to arrive during the daytime. Snowfall may be an added hazard for upland central parts of the UK.
For the storm on Monday there is also a lower risk, ranging from 20% in SW England, to 40% in SE England, and 10% or less over Northern and Central parts of the UK, that extremely damaging inland gusts of order 90mph will develop as this storm system passes through. This is exceptional, and would cause widespread disruption to transport and significant danger to life.
This warning will be updated at around 0900 tomorrow, Monday 12th January 2004, unless superseded by the issue of flash messages.
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met Office.
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