Even opgezocht en dat is dus gewoon een cyclus bij vooral sterkere en meer rondvormige orkanen? Die EYEWALL REPLACEMENT : MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD
BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT
AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON
VISUAL IMAGERY. SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE
PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX. HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN
TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH
RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. CLEARLY IF
FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE
MUCH WEAKER. INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
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