Merkwaardig hoe sommige gedachten parallel lopen
Bericht van: Marcus (Sleidinge) - moderator - , 15-01-2004 22:17
Ik had het ook al over '86 en dit komt van TWO:
Evening all.
IMHO the models are hinting at a classic 'transition' period, between a predominantly Atlantic influence, and a more HP dominated continental scene. The models have changed quite strongly from 24hrs ago, although the short term outlook for early next week still looks mild, this is already being played down somewhat, with the main mild push to the west of the B.Isles, before the Azores high flattens out again.
What is important is what is happening up North. It looks to me that higher than expected pressure over Scandinavia will push the next round of cyclogenesis SE (a familiar pattern this winter), with the Atlantic then quietning down significantly. I think the JMA tonight best illustrates this scenario.
What most strikes me is how similar this whole period is to the end of January 1986. Last night I looked at the whole period from 11Jan 86 through to the 31st (when the cold spell properly started). Look familiar?
Also what is striking is how rapidly HP builds at the start of this spell (and most other notable cold spells). All the major models would have problems picking up a similar scenario today, and although still unlikely (all cold spells are unlikely), the ingredients are definitely still there.
Finally ensembles are good (excepting early next week), and we have the threat of snow on Satuarday (perhaps I will see my first flake!)
All in all more to be optimistic about than not. (I've really scraped my optimistic jar clean tonight!)
Squishy regards,
Evening all.
IMHO the models are hinting at a classic 'transition' period, between a predominantly Atlantic influence, and a more HP dominated continental scene. The models have changed quite strongly from 24hrs ago, although the short term outlook for early next week still looks mild, this is already being played down somewhat, with the main mild push to the west of the B.Isles, before the Azores high flattens out again.
What is important is what is happening up North. It looks to me that higher than expected pressure over Scandinavia will push the next round of cyclogenesis SE (a familiar pattern this winter), with the Atlantic then quietning down significantly. I think the JMA tonight best illustrates this scenario.
What most strikes me is how similar this whole period is to the end of January 1986. Last night I looked at the whole period from 11Jan 86 through to the 31st (when the cold spell properly started). Look familiar?
Also what is striking is how rapidly HP builds at the start of this spell (and most other notable cold spells). All the major models would have problems picking up a similar scenario today, and although still unlikely (all cold spells are unlikely), the ingredients are definitely still there.
Finally ensembles are good (excepting early next week), and we have the threat of snow on Satuarday (perhaps I will see my first flake!)
All in all more to be optimistic about than not. (I've really scraped my optimistic jar clean tonight!)
Squishy regards,
"Koersen, dat is stampen en afzien tot ge niet meer weet van welke parochie ge zijt." (Briek Schotte)
