De bui net ten zuiden van Scott City KS heeft potentie uit te groeien tot een langlevend exemplaar.
...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE EXIT REGION
OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 984 MB LOW NEAR DENVER WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NE CO INTO WRN KS. A WARM FRONT IS
LOCATED NEAR GOODLAND AND EXTENDS SEWD INTO CNTRL KS. RUC DATA EAST
OF THE DRYLINE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
HIGH RISK AREA. REGIONAL PROFILERS HAVE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2 SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND LONG-LIVED STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THIS ZONE ESPECIALLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A PLUME OF VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SW KS AND THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS.