ESTOFEX geeft net als het KNMI aan dat er een kans is op een aantal onweersbuien bij passage van het front.
... Benelux ... extreme NW France ...
Some instability is expected to develop over Benelux in plume or warm/moist air amidst 20-25 m/s deep shear. However, CAPE should be rather weak, and unstable parcel layer depth also seems to be rather low. Still, isolated thunderstorms may occur, and some chances for an isolated marginally severe hail/wind event should exist. At the moment, signals appear to be too weak for a categorical threat, but an upgrade may be needed for this region if instability turns out to be deeper than currently simulated. Thunderstorms may extend across the British Isles, where favorable kinematic fields are not expected to coincide with instability, however.
... Benelux ... extreme NW France ...
Some instability is expected to develop over Benelux in plume or warm/moist air amidst 20-25 m/s deep shear. However, CAPE should be rather weak, and unstable parcel layer depth also seems to be rather low. Still, isolated thunderstorms may occur, and some chances for an isolated marginally severe hail/wind event should exist. At the moment, signals appear to be too weak for a categorical threat, but an upgrade may be needed for this region if instability turns out to be deeper than currently simulated. Thunderstorms may extend across the British Isles, where favorable kinematic fields are not expected to coincide with instability, however.
