M'n verwachtingen stel ik (uiteraard) op zonder waar dan ook te 'spieken', vandaar dat ik deze bevestiging van Estofex wel kan waarderen! 
Groet,
Alwin
===================
Extended Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Aug 2008 06:00 to Wed 13 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Aug 2008 21:36
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS
Not much changes ahead as major upper trough is still in place over NW-Europe. Numerous disturbances rotate around this trough, resulting in unsettled conditions over most parts of central and N-Europe. Still hot and stable conditions over the Mediterranean and SE/E-Europe.
DISCUSSION
... N - Germany ...
As discussed in the day-1-outlook, the main feature of interest is an open wave, which crosses N-Germany during the early morning hours ( NW-Germany) and early afternoon hours ( NE-Germany) from the WSW. The main difference compared to the activity over France the night before will be better timing, as diabatic heating will help to diminish the effect of the inhibiting warm mid-level airmass and surface based convection becomes increasingly likely already during the morning hours. The area of concern will be the wide warm sector, characterized by a warm and humid airmass, where surface winds will be mainly from the S/SSW. The main concern right now is the astonishing intense wind field for this time of year as a 45m/s speed max. at 500hPa goes along with this wave, providing divergence in its left exit region, also under the favorable area of a 60m/s streak at 300hPa. This wind field creates strong directional and speed shear with high helicity values in the inflow layer of surface based storms as LL shear will be in the order of 12-15m/s and SRH-1 values above 200 m^2/s^2, slowly decreasing over NE-Germany betimes. Exact strength of this wave is still unclear and hence the final strength of the shear but there are indications for thunderstorms to become supercellular with a distinct tornado risk over N-Germany during the forecast period. Later outlooks will evaluate the tornado risk with new data.
Groet,
Alwin
===================
Extended Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Aug 2008 06:00 to Wed 13 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Aug 2008 21:36
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS
Not much changes ahead as major upper trough is still in place over NW-Europe. Numerous disturbances rotate around this trough, resulting in unsettled conditions over most parts of central and N-Europe. Still hot and stable conditions over the Mediterranean and SE/E-Europe.
DISCUSSION
... N - Germany ...
As discussed in the day-1-outlook, the main feature of interest is an open wave, which crosses N-Germany during the early morning hours ( NW-Germany) and early afternoon hours ( NE-Germany) from the WSW. The main difference compared to the activity over France the night before will be better timing, as diabatic heating will help to diminish the effect of the inhibiting warm mid-level airmass and surface based convection becomes increasingly likely already during the morning hours. The area of concern will be the wide warm sector, characterized by a warm and humid airmass, where surface winds will be mainly from the S/SSW. The main concern right now is the astonishing intense wind field for this time of year as a 45m/s speed max. at 500hPa goes along with this wave, providing divergence in its left exit region, also under the favorable area of a 60m/s streak at 300hPa. This wind field creates strong directional and speed shear with high helicity values in the inflow layer of surface based storms as LL shear will be in the order of 12-15m/s and SRH-1 values above 200 m^2/s^2, slowly decreasing over NE-Germany betimes. Exact strength of this wave is still unclear and hence the final strength of the shear but there are indications for thunderstorms to become supercellular with a distinct tornado risk over N-Germany during the forecast period. Later outlooks will evaluate the tornado risk with new data.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 10-08-2008 23:50