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Tropical Development Soon?

A tropical disturbance currently near Puerto Rico is expected to continue traveling west-northwestward and impact the island of Hispaniola today and tonight. Heavy rain, gusty winds, flooding and landslides will be major problems across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next 12 to 24 hours. While the center of this disturbance is over land, development will be inhibited by the mountainous terrain of both Puerto Rico and especially Hispaniola. If and when this disturbance moves away from land, conditions will become much more conducive for rapid intensification, as wind shear is low and water temperatures are quite warm.

Once away from Hispaniola, this system will probably quickly increase in strength to become Tropical Storm Fay, going from a depression to a tropical storm in mere hours. Also, its track will begin to turn toward the northwest, and its forward speed will decrease. The southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba will begin to feel its effects by Saturday morning. Again, the center of this system may be over land at times Saturday, this time the Bahamas. However, the Bahamas are not as large nor as mountainous as Hispaniola, so their effects on the storm will not be nearly as strong, and intensification may occur.

By Sunday, this area of stormy weather will have moved into the central Bahamas and will be lashing them, as well as portions of eastern Cuba, with torrential rainfall, flooding and gusty winds. We will continue to monitor this system closely, as quick, explosive development is possible over the weekend. With the southeastern U.S. coast not far from the center of the storm, all eyes will have to be focused on the possible track, as well as the intensity. A path slightly farther to the west over the next 24 to 48 hours could also mean a closer approach to Florida. All residents from the southeastern U.S. to Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico should monitor this storm's progression closely.
bron: http://hurricane.accuweather.com