Goede reis Bart (Oostakker) [Fay]

Fay Aiming For Cuba; Florida Is Next

After just skimming Cape Cruz, Cuba, early this morning, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 20.8 north, 79.8 west. Maximum-sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Fay is still moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Some strengthening is expected through the afternoon as Fay turns on a northwest track through Gulf of Guancanayabo. Fay is expected to remain a tropical storm when it makes a more direct landfall near Trinidad, Cuba, tonight. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across Cuba, Jamaica, and the northern Cayman islands. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible, which would cause flash flooding and mudslides.

Hurricane watches are in effect for much of Central Cuba, including La Habana. Additional hurricane watches are in effect for much of Southern Florida, including Naples, Fort Myers and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for most of Cuba as well as the Florida Keys. Miami and West Palm Beach are under tropical storm watches.

Fay will weaken as it moves across Cuba, and is forecast to emerge into the Florida Straits as a tropical storm on Monday. Sea surface temperatures in this region are very warm and warm water runs deep in the Florida Straits. This area of deep, warm water will cause Fay to quickly ramp back up to near hurricane strength before moving over the Florida Keys, sometime on Monday afternoon or Monday night.

There is still a fairly widespread area of possible tracks according to computer models, from just east of Florida to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The majority of them, however, indicate a path over the western portion of the Florida Peninsula.

All interests from Cuba and Florida should closely monitor this storm through the weekend. Our forecast track indicates the effects of Fay may be felt in Georgia and the Carolinas toward the middle of next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is present along 55 west, south of 25 north as well as 31 west, south of 18 north. Neither waves are showing signs of development within the next few days. However, computer forecasts continue to suggest that the second wave could become a depression or storm early next week. Development of this system will have to be monitored.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott