Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT
Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with "unsubscribe" in your email subject line.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
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Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT
Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with "unsubscribe" in your email subject line.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
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