...France, Benelux countries, southwestern Germany...
Diurnal heating will lead to about 1,5 kJ/kg MUCAPE over parts of France, Germany and the Benelux countries. As CIN is expected to be rather low, temperature anomalies, orographic effects and other mesoscale features may lead to widespread initiation. In most parts of the region to be discussed, deep layer shear is 10 m/s or less. Some weakly organized multicell storms are expected to form, capable of producing isolated large hail and isolated severe gusts. As storms will tend to cluster, the hail / gust threat will diminish later on but local flash floods cannot be discounted. A marginal level-one threat seems to be warranted for those areas where greatest instability is expected.
Diurnal heating will lead to about 1,5 kJ/kg MUCAPE over parts of France, Germany and the Benelux countries. As CIN is expected to be rather low, temperature anomalies, orographic effects and other mesoscale features may lead to widespread initiation. In most parts of the region to be discussed, deep layer shear is 10 m/s or less. Some weakly organized multicell storms are expected to form, capable of producing isolated large hail and isolated severe gusts. As storms will tend to cluster, the hail / gust threat will diminish later on but local flash floods cannot be discounted. A marginal level-one threat seems to be warranted for those areas where greatest instability is expected.
Was sein muss, muss sein.
