Uit de Estofex verwachting van 2/9/2008 2:42UTC, geldig voor 2/9/2008 06:00UTC tot 3/9/2008 06:00UTC:
Synopsis
... The cold front belong to this depression affects northern France, the Benelux, NW-half of Germany, Denmark and SW Norway during this period. Large geopotential height gradients flank the front and create strong vertical shear. However, the part over Benelux and western Germany is according to GFS overspread by subsidence, and equilibrium levels of any convection along the front barely reach sufficient depth for mixed-phase growth of precipitation. ...
Discussion: Northern France, Belgium, Netherlands, W Germany...
... Slight CAPE is generated in GFS for the afternoon, and strong deep convergence along the front. While tops will probably not be high enough for thunderous convection, the area should be monitored for signs of it. Any storm in this shear environment (15 m/s LLS, 200 m2/s2 SREH-3, 20 m/s DLS) could develop tornadoes. ...
Die 'slight CAPE' zie ik vooralsnog niet terug, maar vind dit toch wel een opvallende verwachting, zij het dat als geschetst de kans op zwaardere buien klein is.
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