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...Sardinia, Corsica to Italy coast...
Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible. Nevertheless, severe threat should arrive with the approaching cold front, which shall affect the region from 15 to 21Z. Troposphere should be conditionally unstable during the whole day, but further destabilization will occur ahead of the front with MLCAPEs above 800 J/kg. Furthermore, strong mid and low level flow will establish over the area with DLS values around 20 m/s and shear in the lowest 3 km around 15 m/s should suffice for good storm organisation. From storm spectrum, multicells should prevail but supercell is not ruled out either. Large hail will be possible with stronger cells, especially by the Italian coast. Strong low level wind field, with windspeeds up to 25 m/s at 850hPa suggest that severe wind gusts may accompany the storms. On the coasts, friction will reduce the surface winds and increase LLS, reaching 10 -15 m/s, so one or two tornadoes might occur too.
...Gargano penninsula to Adriatic sea...
A tongue of steep mid-level lapse rates will point to the area with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. DLS will be between 20 - 25 m/s and MLS above 15 m/s. What is more, favourable veering of the wind with height will raise the SREH, which should reach more than 250 J/kg in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that rotating updrafts will become a distinct possibility. Although storms should stay mostly multicellular as GFS suggests storm clustering, few isolated supercells might occur. In such case, chances for large hail would increase significantly. Steep lapse rates and also quite strong flow at 700 hPa level will combine to promote a downburst risk. Few tornado / waterspout reports are expected as SREH 0-1 km should increase to 150 J/kg and coexist with high low level buoyancy. As very good storm organisation is anticipated, along with high storm coverage, LVL 2 is issued in the belt, where the highest threat will be present. Most of the severe weather should occur between 06 and 15Z, shifting eastwards. After this period, severe weather risk will gradually dimnish.
Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible. Nevertheless, severe threat should arrive with the approaching cold front, which shall affect the region from 15 to 21Z. Troposphere should be conditionally unstable during the whole day, but further destabilization will occur ahead of the front with MLCAPEs above 800 J/kg. Furthermore, strong mid and low level flow will establish over the area with DLS values around 20 m/s and shear in the lowest 3 km around 15 m/s should suffice for good storm organisation. From storm spectrum, multicells should prevail but supercell is not ruled out either. Large hail will be possible with stronger cells, especially by the Italian coast. Strong low level wind field, with windspeeds up to 25 m/s at 850hPa suggest that severe wind gusts may accompany the storms. On the coasts, friction will reduce the surface winds and increase LLS, reaching 10 -15 m/s, so one or two tornadoes might occur too.
...Gargano penninsula to Adriatic sea...
A tongue of steep mid-level lapse rates will point to the area with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. DLS will be between 20 - 25 m/s and MLS above 15 m/s. What is more, favourable veering of the wind with height will raise the SREH, which should reach more than 250 J/kg in the 0-3 km layer. This suggests that rotating updrafts will become a distinct possibility. Although storms should stay mostly multicellular as GFS suggests storm clustering, few isolated supercells might occur. In such case, chances for large hail would increase significantly. Steep lapse rates and also quite strong flow at 700 hPa level will combine to promote a downburst risk. Few tornado / waterspout reports are expected as SREH 0-1 km should increase to 150 J/kg and coexist with high low level buoyancy. As very good storm organisation is anticipated, along with high storm coverage, LVL 2 is issued in the belt, where the highest threat will be present. Most of the severe weather should occur between 06 and 15Z, shifting eastwards. After this period, severe weather risk will gradually dimnish.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 29-10-2008 17:32