Joe Bastardi's Europe Colum
Euro winter idea:
Colder than the past two with most cold relative to averages up front.
The european winter will be colder than the past two to start, but the mid and latter part of the winter will probably reverse to a warmer than normal pattern. Enhanced snowfalls will be the biggest story in the high ground of central Europe as well as Scandinavia The pattern analogs and alot of the modeling are in relatively good agreement.
I believe we are looking at a neutral to negative arctic oscillation later in November into December and perhaps to start January. However as the winter progresses the natural processes of feedback will lead to a reversal of this. Examples of such "flips" can be found by looking at the MEI indices that closely mimic where we are now, 1950-1951, 1974-1975, and 1989-1990. This is in line with our US idea also.
The closest recent winter to this looks to be 05-06. While the US had a freak January as far as warmth, the European weather was not as warm.. The bottom line is that a winter similar to that winter is the most recent example, and this will be colder than last year and the year before, but when all said and done, there is nothing outstandingly cold about it. Of the three winter months, Feb looks the warmest, Dec the coldest with Jan a tossup.
I will be posting more often on this as we continue, but for the continent as a whole a "normal" winter temp wise with above normal precip in the central and east and normal to below normal in the west seems to be the best bet.
thanks for reading, ciao for now *****
Euro winter idea:
Colder than the past two with most cold relative to averages up front.
The european winter will be colder than the past two to start, but the mid and latter part of the winter will probably reverse to a warmer than normal pattern. Enhanced snowfalls will be the biggest story in the high ground of central Europe as well as Scandinavia The pattern analogs and alot of the modeling are in relatively good agreement.
I believe we are looking at a neutral to negative arctic oscillation later in November into December and perhaps to start January. However as the winter progresses the natural processes of feedback will lead to a reversal of this. Examples of such "flips" can be found by looking at the MEI indices that closely mimic where we are now, 1950-1951, 1974-1975, and 1989-1990. This is in line with our US idea also.
The closest recent winter to this looks to be 05-06. While the US had a freak January as far as warmth, the European weather was not as warm.. The bottom line is that a winter similar to that winter is the most recent example, and this will be colder than last year and the year before, but when all said and done, there is nothing outstandingly cold about it. Of the three winter months, Feb looks the warmest, Dec the coldest with Jan a tossup.
I will be posting more often on this as we continue, but for the continent as a whole a "normal" winter temp wise with above normal precip in the central and east and normal to below normal in the west seems to be the best bet.
thanks for reading, ciao for now *****
