Seasonal outlook - November 29, 2008 Milder in January
Issued: Saturday 28th November 2008
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
Some mild spells through January and February, but cold at first and at the end of the forecast.
January
The first 10 days or so of the New Year look set to be rather unsettled throughout and initially quite cold with a flow sourced from a north to north-easterly point, however by mid-month it should be much milder with a more Atlantic flavour to the air. Conditions from mid-month look likely to be controlled by the position of persistent higher pressure to the east and complex perhaps slow moving lower pressure over the UK, on the chilly to mild side for much of the time rather than cold generally for the remainder of the month.
Cold and showery through the first week with some wintry precipitation affecting all areas, and a flow predominantly sourced from the north, this should ease as the flow switches around to the south then southwest a much milder, cloudier and breezy pattern establishing through all areas.
High pressure should be maintained to the east over the Continent, low pressure becoming stuck over the UK in a complex and slow moving feature. Milder through the remainder of the month with a flow from the west, southwest or south characterised by spells of rain and rather windy weather, interspersed with brighter showery conditions.
February
Although beginning where January left-off, the new month may be characterised by a rather chilly to cold regime establishing through the first week, dominated by low pressure, the greater risk of all areas seeing some wintry precipitation from time to time.
Generally less cold through the middle of the month as the flow becomes more Atlantic and zonal low pressure controlling the pattern over the UK for a time, the latter stages of February seeing colder conditions returning to all areas from the east.
A mild start to the month, although the emphasis quickly alter to one of colder conditions, the flow swinging into the north, precipitation generally of quite a wintry flavour through to mid-month, low pressure continuing to dominate the pattern.
Conditions becoming milder once more, although remaining unsettled from mid-month as low pressure continues to control the Atlantic, pushing bands of rain through all areas on a stiff westerly flow, hints of a return to much colder weather through the latter stages of the month from the north or northeast.
Simon
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk
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