DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST THU FEB 19 2009
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR LOW NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WILL MOVE TO NRN NEW ENG BY
12Z FRI AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DROPS E FROM BC INTO NRN MT/SK. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH HAS ACCELERATED SEWD AND BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN RECENT HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING THE SE CST EARLY
TONIGHT.
...NRN/CNTRL FL...
LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS OVER NRN FL HAS ALMOST BEEN OVERTAKEN BY
COLD FRONT NOW OVER S GA. CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME COLLOCATED
WITH MAX PW AXIS...WITH VALUES AOA 1.50 INCHES. RICH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...AND SLIGHT OVERNIGHT
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY AMPLIFICATION
OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIKELY ALL CONTRIBUTED TO THE CONTINUED
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE ONSET OF SFC HEATING...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AS MID LVL PROFILES REMAIN CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...LOW LVL MASS FLUX WILL DECREASE AS DEEPENING NEW ENG
SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER NEWD AWAY FROM REGION...AND LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IN FL BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT. THUS...EXPECT THAT
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...AOA 50 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LVL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE OVER LAND...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THUS...A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS...AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO...WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.
Wel even interessant om te volgen. Maar op zich valt het wel mee, even meeluisteren met NOAA WX radio. Ga de komende tijd dit vaker volgen in de VS en updates plaatsen
Als daar interesse voor is dan..
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST THU FEB 19 2009
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR LOW NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WILL MOVE TO NRN NEW ENG BY
12Z FRI AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DROPS E FROM BC INTO NRN MT/SK. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH HAS ACCELERATED SEWD AND BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN RECENT HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY...CLEARING THE SE CST EARLY
TONIGHT.
...NRN/CNTRL FL...
LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS OVER NRN FL HAS ALMOST BEEN OVERTAKEN BY
COLD FRONT NOW OVER S GA. CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME COLLOCATED
WITH MAX PW AXIS...WITH VALUES AOA 1.50 INCHES. RICH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...AND SLIGHT OVERNIGHT
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY AMPLIFICATION
OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIKELY ALL CONTRIBUTED TO THE CONTINUED
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE ONSET OF SFC HEATING...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AS MID LVL PROFILES REMAIN CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...LOW LVL MASS FLUX WILL DECREASE AS DEEPENING NEW ENG
SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER NEWD AWAY FROM REGION...AND LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IN FL BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT. THUS...EXPECT THAT
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...AOA 50 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LVL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE OVER LAND...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THUS...A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS...AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO...WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.
Wel even interessant om te volgen. Maar op zich valt het wel mee, even meeluisteren met NOAA WX radio. Ga de komende tijd dit vaker volgen in de VS en updates plaatsen
Als daar interesse voor is dan..
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 19-02-2009 14:00
Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does the work. - Mark Twain -