DISCUSSION
... France ...
A deep EML is expected to advect across France on Saturday, with GFS simulating a strong increase of LL moisture underneath the EML, which results in strong CAPE in the simulations. However, low-level return flow from the Mediterranean Sea is unlikely to set in before late Saturday, so it seems unlikely that dewpoints will rise as much as GFS advertises. However, some instability is likely to develop during the day, with least capping expected over N France at the northern edge of the EML.
20 to 25 m/s DLS are expected over the northern half of France on Saturday, suggesting that any storm that forms will have potential of becoming organized, including the potential for supercells. These storms are likely to produce severe wind gusts and large hail.
... France ...
A deep EML is expected to advect across France on Saturday, with GFS simulating a strong increase of LL moisture underneath the EML, which results in strong CAPE in the simulations. However, low-level return flow from the Mediterranean Sea is unlikely to set in before late Saturday, so it seems unlikely that dewpoints will rise as much as GFS advertises. However, some instability is likely to develop during the day, with least capping expected over N France at the northern edge of the EML.
20 to 25 m/s DLS are expected over the northern half of France on Saturday, suggesting that any storm that forms will have potential of becoming organized, including the potential for supercells. These storms are likely to produce severe wind gusts and large hail.
Mss de Vlaamse Ardennen