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...France, Benelux...
About 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE should be able to form over the Benelux countries and northern France as diurnal heating destabilises the air-mass. Quite extensive cloudiness is expected to limit destabilisation over south-central France, while drier and cooler maritime air is expected to limit destabilisation in western France. As the aformentioned jet streak moves northward, a small area of relatively strong deep layer shear / 15-25 m/s / may coincide with some MLCAPE in the area marked "see text". Uncertainty whether this will actually be realised and relatively benign forcing for upward vertical motion makes that a slight risk will not be issued at this moment.
Further north, over northern France and the Benelux countries shear will be smaller, but MLCAPE will likely become higher. A few large hail events and strong, but likely sub-severe gusts will be possible here.
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