ESTOFEX : slight risk

...central and northern France, Benelux, Germany...
During the morning hours... it seems likely that a partially convective precipitation system ahead of the former vort. max. will be moving northward over western France. The warm front of the wave - expected to be initially near a line from Brittany to the western Alps, is expected to move northward and eastward to reach the northern Benelux and Germany by Thursday 06Z. Quite widespread convection is expected near and (elevated convection) ahead of the surface front, where up to 500 J/kg (elevated) MLCAPE should be available per GFS/NMM. Up to above 400 m2/s2 0-3 km SREH is forecast near the frontal zone, but some of the helicity will be present in the cool prefrontal air-mass that will not be ingested by storm updrafts. Nevertheless a potential for rotating updrafts seems to be present. Therefore, isolated (embedded) rotating storms are to be expected near the warm front, that - given anticipated low LCL heights - have the potential to produce tornadoes, that may be strong. Strong to severe gusts and some large hail are thought to be possible as well. The storms -initially affecting France- will only very slowly reduce intensity during the evening and night, implying these will continue to pose a slight risk as they move into central Germany and the Benelux countries during the evening hours.