Ik denk dan stiekem aan 15 juli 2003 waarbij ze ook een moderate voor Bordeaux en omgeving uitgavan aan het begin van de middag...
Alhoewel ze wel vaker MODERATE uitgegeven hebben (zelfs minstens 1x HIGH) en we van andere dagen niks gehoord hebben qua 'zwaar weer'.
ESTOFEX verwachting voor vandaag (voor het MODERATE gebied):
...northeastern Spain, southeastern France and western Switzerland...
Some convection is expected to be ongoing within the warm sector over northeastern Spain as well as southern and southeastern France. Convection over the latter areas has an increasing chance of becoming severe during the day as shear profiles strenghthen. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE should be present near the Mediterreanen coast per GFS and rapid northward moisture advection through the Rhone valley should allow for the development of some latent instability furthern northward during the day. 25-35 m/s (0-6 km) deep-layer shear should be favourable for the development of supercells. The storms should be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and some tornadoes, that may be strong (>F1). High, 300-500 m/s 0-3 km SREH values forecast over southeastern France and Switzerland per GFS 12Z are expected to be particularly favourable for updraft rotation and tornadoes.
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