Ook moeten we locatie van het thermisch laagje in de gaten houden want sommige parameters hangen enkel maar vast aan de locatie van dat laagje (wat ze ook omschrijven in de forecast):
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While whopping 4000 J/kg MLCAPE of GFS seems unlikely, we expect 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over the level 1 area with up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE next to the surface boundary, where moisture pooling will be maximized (e.g. level 2 area). EZ agrees well with that scenario.
Shear remains weak over E-France but increases to 15-20 m/s 0-6 km DLS over central/NE-France and Benelux. Same with 0-3 km shear. Again, potential development of a weak surface depression over Benelux may modify kinematic environment.
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While whopping 4000 J/kg MLCAPE of GFS seems unlikely, we expect 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over the level 1 area with up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE next to the surface boundary, where moisture pooling will be maximized (e.g. level 2 area). EZ agrees well with that scenario.
Shear remains weak over E-France but increases to 15-20 m/s 0-6 km DLS over central/NE-France and Benelux. Same with 0-3 km shear. Again, potential development of a weak surface depression over Benelux may modify kinematic environment.
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