RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory

Zczc 811 wtin20 dems 010750 dems-rsmc tropical cyclones new delhi 01-10-2011 tropical weather outlook for north indian ocean (the bay of bengal and arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 0600 utc of 1st november , 2011 based on 0300 utc of 1st november , 2011(.)

The depression over west central arabian sea moved westward, intensified into deep depression and lay centred at 0300 utc of today, the 1st november 2011 over westcentral arabian sea near latitude 16.00n and longitude 56.00e, about 2000 km west-northwest of mangalore (43284), 450 km north-northeast of socotra island (41494) and 230 km east-southeast of salalah (41316). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards cross south oman and adjoining yemen coast close to south of salalah (41316) around morning of 2nd november 2011 the depth of convection has increased during past 12 hrs. The intensity of the system is t2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between lat 13.00n to 18.50n long 51.50e to 58.00e and bet lat 18.50n to 22.50n long 55.00e to 63.00e adj oman.The lowest cloud top temperature (ctt) due to conve ction is around -840c in association with the system. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated to be about 30 knots around system centre. The state of the sea is very rough around the system centre. The estimated central pressure is about 1000 hpa. Remark: the relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hpa level do not show significant change in past 12 hrs and upper level divergence shows no chane during past 12 hrs. Sea surface temperature is around 26-270c around the system centre. The ocean heat content is less (< 40 kj/cm2) around the system centre and not favourable for intensification over gulf of aden and adjoining arabian sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favourable as it is low to moderate (between 05-10 knots). There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear around the system centre. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 180n in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system centre. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along oman coast.The lowest mean sea level pressure(mslp) has been reported by salalah (41316) of 1004.0, pressure change in last 24 hrs (p24p24) of -1.7 hpa. Though most of the models suggest movement towards gulf of aden/ oman coast, there is large variation in track forecast. Ecmwf model shows west-northwards movement during next 48 hrs. Considering all these, the system is likely to move west-northwestwards cross south oman and adjoining yemen coast close to south of salalah (41316) around morning of 2nd november 2011 .= nnnn