Met de verwachting van Netweather. Zie verdiepingsforum daarvoor.
Vandaag was er weer een interessante bijdrage van Stewart (opsteller daarvan).
The transition of the QBO from west to east allied to an uptick in solar activity and interfrence of the Brewer Dobson Circultation during the summer (following a strong final warming of the polar stratosphere in April have all lead us to where we are now, something that was anticipated back in October.
However, green shoots starting to emerge. This is not a forecast of a stratospheric warming.
Mean zonal winds have decreased in the last 48 hrs to average levels in the middle and upper stratosphere. We also see the ECM continuing to toy with the idea that 10hPa tempeatures are trending back towards normal (this might be of interest to monitor the impacts of a relative increase from such a low base). Heat flux at 60N 30hPa is approaching a medium level and 30hPa temperatures whilst forecast to remain static, relative to the cooling mean, will actually show a slight increase.
When we next get a westerly wind burst in the troposphere (estimated at latter 1/3 of December), and potential Asian Mountain Torque off the back of it, this will be the time to take advantage of any lessening of the cooling trend.
Ander forumlid, meer gericht op de stratosfeer.
Already seeing a large increase in the wave 1 and 2 heat and momentum fluxes at 10 days. Add this to the cooling ceasing then things setting up as expected.
Still no end to the tropospheric zonal conditions and less chance of a deflecting UK ridge with a possible reversal of the MJO back to phase 4. So no end to the increased strength PV into Jan now - but we will have to see what occurs stratospherically in the meantime.
Vandaag was er weer een interessante bijdrage van Stewart (opsteller daarvan).
The transition of the QBO from west to east allied to an uptick in solar activity and interfrence of the Brewer Dobson Circultation during the summer (following a strong final warming of the polar stratosphere in April have all lead us to where we are now, something that was anticipated back in October.
However, green shoots starting to emerge. This is not a forecast of a stratospheric warming.
Mean zonal winds have decreased in the last 48 hrs to average levels in the middle and upper stratosphere. We also see the ECM continuing to toy with the idea that 10hPa tempeatures are trending back towards normal (this might be of interest to monitor the impacts of a relative increase from such a low base). Heat flux at 60N 30hPa is approaching a medium level and 30hPa temperatures whilst forecast to remain static, relative to the cooling mean, will actually show a slight increase.
When we next get a westerly wind burst in the troposphere (estimated at latter 1/3 of December), and potential Asian Mountain Torque off the back of it, this will be the time to take advantage of any lessening of the cooling trend.
Ander forumlid, meer gericht op de stratosfeer.
Already seeing a large increase in the wave 1 and 2 heat and momentum fluxes at 10 days. Add this to the cooling ceasing then things setting up as expected.
Still no end to the tropospheric zonal conditions and less chance of a deflecting UK ridge with a possible reversal of the MJO back to phase 4. So no end to the increased strength PV into Jan now - but we will have to see what occurs stratospherically in the meantime.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
