Stewart wijst op het volgende. nl(vertaald in hoofdlijnen) dat zowel EC als GFS op 10 zeer overeenkomstige ENS hebben.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72218-model-output-discussion-january-12th/page__st__280__p__2211127#entry2211127
If you look at the hemispheric solutions, the GFS is majorly out of kilter with its own ensemble mean and other forecast products which have shown good continuity over the last few days. In particular, look how the GFS op resolves Alaska and the Siberian ridge in the extended range - complete opposite to the strong concensus.
Meantime, the ensemble means (including GFS) continue to back the Atlantic ridge west delivering a pronounced broad trough over Europe.
By day 10, GFS and ECM ensemble means show very good agreement for the pattern in terms of 850 values:
The significance is this. Once a cold block like this is developed, it becomes very difficult to shift, indeed, there is IMO no suggestion of a strong +NAO / +AO pattern during February which will dislodge this
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72218-model-output-discussion-january-12th/page__st__280__p__2211127#entry2211127
If you look at the hemispheric solutions, the GFS is majorly out of kilter with its own ensemble mean and other forecast products which have shown good continuity over the last few days. In particular, look how the GFS op resolves Alaska and the Siberian ridge in the extended range - complete opposite to the strong concensus.
Meantime, the ensemble means (including GFS) continue to back the Atlantic ridge west delivering a pronounced broad trough over Europe.
By day 10, GFS and ECM ensemble means show very good agreement for the pattern in terms of 850 values:
The significance is this. Once a cold block like this is developed, it becomes very difficult to shift, indeed, there is IMO no suggestion of a strong +NAO / +AO pattern during February which will dislodge this
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
