MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
123 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012
VALID JAN 13/0000 UTC THRU JAN 16/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...
00Z/13 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES
ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.
...SPRAWLING CYCLONE TRACKING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY DAY 1...
PREFERENCE: NONE
THE RECENT GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY.
...CLIPPER DIVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE DAY 1...
PREFERENCE: ECMWF
THE NAM AND GFS LOSE DEFINITION OF THIS WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE START OF DAY 3. WILL RELY ON THE ECMWF...WHICH
HONORS THE TEMPORAL CONTINUITY OF THE IMPULSE BETTER...AND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET.
...FRONT DRAPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY 2...
PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL RELY ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS SUPPORTED BY THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET.
...TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...
CISCO
Om daaruit te besluiten dat NCEP het GFS dropt, is dus nogal kort door de bocht
Ingen ko på isen!
